In 2011, CIB’s John Harrison and Edward Spalton jointly authored an article entitled ‘Britain’s Exit from the EU (in its present form) is now almost certain.’ Looking back at that article now, not only were we right about Britain’s exit from the EU, we foresaw what David Cameron could not: that it was the impossibility of escaping the gravitational pull of ‘ever closer union’ from the dominant Eurozone countries that would bring about our exit.
Q: Just say it is late 2018. Britain and the EU have just agreed a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) with us largely under EU control until 2021, losing existing voting power. The future relationship declaration is non-committal. Would there be a second referendum?
Sacked minister Justine Greening wants a complicated referendum with 3 options – accept the deal, leave with no deal or remain in the EU. Voters would also get a second choice! Sammy Wilson MP responded that voters had already had referendums to reject the EU and Alternative Voting!
BIRDS OF A FEATHER? Greening (Times) and Mandelson (Guardian) both urged a second referendum, but their articles made the same error on being unable to influence EU rules. As former Trade Commissioner Mandelson would know better – this points to their articles being orchestrated.
The government wouldn’t want a referendum. Apart from splitting the Conservative Party and reviving deep public tensions from 2016, it would take up precious Parliamentary time. Organising a poll and appointing official campaigns would be on impossibly tight timescales unless the Brexit date was put back.
The uncertainty might not actually appeal to the EU either! Bureaucrats in Brussels are overloaded with trying to get EU legislation through while the current European Parliament and Commission are still in place and would not relish the possible disruption to their preparations and extra work. However, it was noted that EU leaders quietly agreed to keep MEP seats for Britain in the event that we did not leave before July 2019!!! So, the possibility can’t be ruled out.
The EU (Withdrawal) Act doesn’t repeal the European Union Act 2011 until we leave the EU, but as current plans won’t give the EU new powers, no referendum should be triggered.
It’s a hard call how MPs would vote on the WA. Most Leaver MPs would probably vote for it to ensure Brexit, salving their consciences that it is only a temporary deal and their vote keeps Jeremy Corbyn out of power. Although Tory Remoaners will bawl “worse than EU membership”, they typically fall into line in practice.
With their 2017 manifesto preaching the benefits of the Single Market, Labour MPs might think twice about voting down legislation that kept Britain in it. On balance, a soft Brexit would probably get passed.
Greening’s line that “the final decision” should be for the people and “out of deadlocked politicians’ hands” is a joke. The deal being voted on is only interim (Transition) and the final deal should be ready towards the run up to the 2022 General Election.
Article produced by Brian Mooney of Resistance
This summary of the failings of our most recent Prime Ministers was sent to us by a colleague.
Amongst the confusion, argument, and downright deceit going on around Brexit at the moment it is, perhaps, time to reflect on the actual human cost of the policies of some of the principal remainers. None of our recent Prime Ministers come out well, sadly.
John Major as Chancellor and Prime Minister led some of the most destructive policies ever yet seen in post war UK, His decision to try to keep us in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) led to a human toll which he has yet to answer for, let alone apologise to the British people for. The toll on his fellow citizens was as follows;
- more than 30,000 families lost their homes through repossession when interest rates climbed from 7.5% to 15% as a result of ERM
- More than 100,000 small companies went bankrupt as a result of ERM
- Suicide rates soared by 53%
- Mental illness caused by severe stress leading to clinical depression soared by 71%
John Major allowed the public and Parliament to be totally misled over the real costs to the UK of the ERM fiasco, yet neither he nor his senior civil servants have been held to account.
Besides the ERM disaster, which was mercifully ended by so-called”Black Wednesday”, Major also was responsible for a number of other problems, the legacies of which have outlasted his premiership:-
Private Pensions, John Major led the deregulation of financial services and encouraged the private pension industry. His treasury actuaries provided the industry with forecast that indicated that interest rates where unlikely to fall below 10% in the next 50 years, this allowed the pension industry to provide yield forecasts that were wildly out of touch with reality and duped tens of thousands to invest in those pension schemes. The net result today is that people are retiring to find their pensions are a fraction of the predictions made when they began investing into them.
The Health Service. John Major triggered what he called NHS reform. He made many public speeches on this topic, but barely touched on the real evil of his policies. DNR – do not resuscitate. This policy sold to the public as a humane gesture to stop people with incurable diseases from dying a painful death was in fact a callous and calculated way of saving the government money by ‘disposing’ of people over 50 judged to have no value to the community. Government-published figures estimate that an average of 32,000 people a year died in hospital as a direct result of DNR. Only the public scandals and questions raised by grieving relatives brought the full scale of this mass slaughter into the public realm. The method of killing was to sedate the patient and then withhold food and water until the patient died. Actually, this was a very painful and distressing way to die as witnessed by patients begging their visitors to give them a drink of water – and those visitors being threatened with arrest if they complied. This culling of people is claimed to have saved the Government £90 billion in benefit and pension payments between the late 1980s and today.
The EU, John Major was a committed federalist, he took the UK in to further commitments to the UK that lost us more of our sovereignty and tied us deeper to the EU federal agenda. He did not state any of his intentions in his election manifesto and in fact he and his senior civil servants again misled parliament and the British People.
John Major has demonstrated utter contempt for his fellow citizens and now continues to do so as he opposes the democratic vote of the British people to leave the EU.
Without stating the obvious facts we all know about Mr Blair, let us look at the actual effect of his policies on everyday life for the average citizen.
He presided over the massive reduction of front-facing services that served the British public. Tax offices, Social service offices, benefit and pension offices closed by the thousands as part of his policies. He began the chain of events that led to reductions in Police Stations, Ambulance stations, Fire Brigade stations, and all of this was to fund his international policies. Blair actively tried to limit UK trade outside of the EU, In one of his most infamous moves he told the Chinese government that the UK was a small country and unlikely to wish to do substantial trade with China. By default he continued Majors NHS policies including DNR and he perfected the art of misleading parliament, the British people and his own colleagues, again with the help of senior civil servants. Under Tony Blair living standards fell, unemployment increased, and services, housing and public health declined. His final act was to reduce the budget of consular services by 90%, UK citizens abroad face the worst consular support offered by any G20 nation.
Apart from his reneging on seeking a public vote on signing yet another EU treaty Mr Brown could be seen as the hapless individual who inherited all the problems created by Blair and was politically destroyed by them.
Mr Cameron had the golden opportunity to begin to bring the UK back to some kind of sanity. Instead he actually worsened what was already a near critical economic situation by decided to give away a large part of the UK’s GDP to foreign aid while cutting yet more services within the UK. Higher education standards fell lower and lower, basic education standards fell to third-world levels and living standards continued to fall, The gap between rich and poor widened significantly. Crime rates grew, immigration grew, and housing shortages, health service cuts, and a surge in petty regulation defined by a vocal minority made life in the UK sink to a very depressing level. Cameron was totally out of touch with reality, totally out of touch with the people he governed yet he believed that somehow his charisma would carry him through any opposition from the electorate. He made a profession out of the phrase “who are you going to believe, Me or your own eyes?”. His fear of UKIP led him to declaring the public referendum on the EU. His overwhelming ego led him to believe that he could persuade the UK electorate to stay in the EU.
In all of these individuals we see a pattern, their wish to govern without consent of their electorate, in contradiction with their publicly stated aims, keeping their colleagues, party and parliament in the dark as to their real intentions and the ease with which they deceive and lie to the electorate about their actions and intentions. All of this suggests that we may well have to look again at strengthening our constitution.
At a church conference in Novi Sad, Serbia, Justin Welby, the Archbishop of Canterbury, made the following extraordinary statement:-
Because of my work, it was the European Common Agricultural Policy which puzzled me from 1972 onwards. The whole thing was so utterly strange in comparison to the common sense system we had before. It was not until 2002 when I received a copy of “European Economic Community”, published in Berlin in 1942, that I really grasped the ideological framework behind it. I translated the introduction and lead papers which form part of this pamphlet.
In 2017 I recorded an interview with Lord Walsingham, who was a Third Secretary in the Foreign Office of 1950 when Britain stayed out of the European project. He revealed that British Intelligence then knew of the hostile intent towards Britain of former fascists and Nazis in the post war French & German governments – their plan of subsidising each other’s heavy industries when in competition with Britain, to weaken our defence capability and assure their eventual ascendancy over the continent of Europe.
Like Lord Walsingham, the perspective of years leads me to the view that today’s EU is not “all a Nazi plot” but that it was heavily influenced from its beginnings by such authoritarian ideas and that has contributed to the alien ethos with which British people have never really been at home.
On a recent visit to Greece, I found that all sorts of people blamed Berlin rather than Brussels for the terrible austerity which EU policy has forced upon them. Back home, I wrote about this to a Greek colleague, a business executive, pointing out the ideas of the German government of 1942 about management of European currencies in the post war era. The exchange rate of the euro gives Germany the export advantage of a currency of relatively low value, compared with Germany’s highly capitalised, productive economy. For Greece and other “Club Med” countries with smaller, less developed resources, the euro exchange rate is far too high for them to be able to export their way out of their predicament.
My Greek friend replied “It is clear now to many Greeks and Europeans that Germany is responsible for the economic plunder of Greece. What happened to Greece was not an accident but a carefully made plan on the part of the always patient, ruthless and very scholastic Germans. It seems that they learned well their lessons from the two previous World Wars. This time Germany managed to conquer Europe without firing a single shot. Unfortunately Greece now (as it was then too) is suffering more casualties than any other European country….”
That is how things are seen in Greece today.
This letter from our Chairman appeared in the Derby Telegraph
Like Percy Brown (7 March), I found a certain humour in the idiocies of the European Common Agricultural Policy which created the wine lakes, beef, butter and grain mountains. Previously we had a very common sense policy which allowed the food of the world to come here without customs duties. Suddenly the taxpayer and the housewife were made to spend far more to make food dear than we had previously spent to keep it cheap.
Nobody could tell me where this strange policy originated and I did not get a definitive answer until 2002 when I received a copy of a German book from the Forties, called “European Economic Community” where the framework and principles were set out concerning the new neighbourly Europe in the making. It was a compilation of papers by very senior people in law, diplomacy, industry, politics and economics.
With great effort, I translated the two key papers – a difficult job because the introduction was in very stiff academic language and the lead paper in a more popular journalistic style.
More recently I met Lord Walsingham, who had been in the German Department of the Foreign Office in 1950 during the Attlee government when the European Coal & Steel Community was formed. I recorded an interview with him. He told me that British Intelligence was well aware that the Community treaty between France & Germany contained secret clauses that each would subsidise the other’s heavy industry to knock out Britain and assume dominance of Europe. It seems to have worked rather well.
“European Economic Community” was published in Berlin in 1942 and the lead paper was delivered by Reichsminister Walther Funk – Minister for the Economy and Post War Planning.