Ten Years? not likely

It could be a full-time job just to debunk all the nonsense that is doing the rounds at the moment.

The latest scare story to do the rounds is a suggestion that UK withdrawal would trigger “ten years of uncertainty.” This is partly based on fears about the validity of trade deals negotiated by the EU on our behalf (and the other member states too, of course).

Lord Lawson, interviewed on the World At One, disputed this and he is right. At a recent seminar Robert Oulds, a CIB Committee member, explained that there was a “presumption of continuance” when one party to a trade deal underwent a change of circumstances. Thus, we would still be able to participate in such trade deals as those negotiated between the EU and Chile, Mexico and South Korea on leaving the EU. Let’s face it, this is sheer common sense; why would either party not want to continue?  All that would be needed is for the two parties to sign an agreement stating that they wish the deal to continue.

Of course, trading with the EU could be more complex and this is why there has been much support for using the so-called Norway Option (re-joining EFTA to allow sealess access to the EEA) to tide us over. It is possible that the desired Europe-wide genuine Free Trade agreement which would replace the EEA COULD take another 10 years, but as long as trade continues seamlessly throughout the withdrawal period, as it would with the EEA/EFTA secnario, no one need be worried. Indeed, as Richard North has put it, this ten years would be a Decade of opportunity.

While we’re at it,  claims that we need ot stay in the EU for security grounds have also been dismissed by Richard Walton, Scotland Yard’s former head of Counter Terrorism.  According to an article in the Daily Telegraph, he said that reducing terror plots is “absolutely not” dependent on being a member of the European Union. “So let’s not scare the horses with fears about Brexit.”  How many more scare stories are we going to have to debunk?

Returning to the World At One feature, it was correct on one point. An academic was quoted saying that once Article 50 is invoked. “the train has left the station” – in other words, withdrawal MUST happen.

Is this scary? Hardly. If you were told, “After 43 years in prison, we’re going to let you out soon, but beware! Once you go through that prison door, we’re never going to let you back in again”, would you really worry about that?

Photo by infomatique

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  1. Jason BarkerReply

    29/02/2016 Sterling takes further plunge on the ‘Brexit’ issue. What a proof we need proper exit plans to re-assure and stabilize the markets.

    Please find below today’s update which gives you an insight into the current market conditions, enabling you to keep informed and up to date on the latest currency movements.


    Market Update – GBP USD

    The Pound collapsed against the US Dollar last week, depreciating almost six cents to a new seven-year low as investors scrambled to protect themselves against a ‘Brexit’ in June of this year.

    Boris Sends Sterling Reeling

    ‘Cable’ plummeted two cents at the start of last week’s trading session as markets reacted acerbically to London Mayor Boris Johnson’s announcement that he would be supporting the ‘Brexit’ camp in June’s EU referendum. The high profile Tory MP is hugely popular and subsequently the prospect of Britons voting to leave the 29-nation bloc strengthened massively following his statement.

    Monday was Sterling’s worst day against the ‘Greenback’ since David Cameron came into power on May 6 2010.

  2. Peter BrownReply

    It is well known that Currency investors are such a bunch of timorous weenies. They do not like change unless it is to raise their personal bank balances’

    The fact that the Pound is seen to be at a 7 year low against the Dollar proves just how volatile currency is when we push the Investors out of their comfort zone. At least we do not have so great a risk of Libor playing their tricks for a while.

    However, the very fact that we are at a 7 year low means that at some time, it will probably come back up again. It must have recovered from 7 years ago in order to describe the present position as such. In the mean time, we can enjoy a short period of extra competitiveness.

    Nil illegitimi Carborundum.

  3. david bartropReply

    I originally voted for a trading relationshhip, nothing else, that is all I want. UK is a satellite of EU, and wanted as a milch cow to fund it.Our voice is one in twenty eight. So much for power.The EU also gets our £ 55 million a day plus most of our fish!
    The prime ministers step into the unknown is the path to freedom for the people and our descendants.
    The auditors have not been able to sign off the EU ‘s accounts for last , is it 20 years,they don’t know where our money goes!
    If the EU wants to make life difficult for us if we leave, it would appear they are contributing to the fall in trade of themselves,and are to be pitied. The UK will trade freely with the rest of the world
    as we always have and let them continue in their isolation.
    I would suggest the rest of the world together is bigger than the EU,
    David Bartrop

  4. R BenbowReply

    Bravo, Boris ! Let Cameron (who thinks Messrs BMW and Reault are going to wait 7 years to sell cars and spares here when Brexit takes effect, to say nothing of the rest of the £40B pa trade credit the EU enjoys from us) have it with both barells !

  5. R BenbowReply

    Bravo Boris! Our PM’s response to your case for Brexit tioday leaves us with the impression he is deluded into thinking BMW and Renault would wait 7 years to sell their cars and spares here when Brexit is effected by our electorate. This “small” matter of a £40B pa trade credit the EU enjoys from us? Presumably the PM thinks the EU will wait another 7 years before enjoying this ” little” bonus ? My guess is that 7 minutes would be too long.
    We have nothing to lose from Brexit; EXCEPT a £40B pa trade deficit with the Superstate.
    I will never vote for a dictate from alien bureaucratic control freaks over the water, hell bent on reckless grand empire building, whilst playing a leading part in formenting war in Ukraine and destabilising the middle east even further with crass border control policies. These people are Unknown, Unseen, Unelected and UNTOUCHABLE if the British electorate are hoodwinked into a yes vote. Keep up the good fight!

  6. Pingback: Lies and misleading information in HM Government leaflet on the EU referendum – Spirit Body Soul

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