New research paper by Futurus – The negotiations will fail

The title of this latest publication from Futurus may appear provocative but the prospect of concluding a jointly agreed leaving process and a future relationship so it can come into effect, possibly with a transition period, by March 2019 seems very remote.

There have been faults on both sides and the UK government’s failure to set out what exactly it wants the outcome to be has been a particular problem.

The UK government need not have agreed to the EU’s proposed sequence of events – the settlement of the Irish border issue and the exit fee – before discussing trading arrangements. Under Article 50, it need not have done so.

A mutually-agreed pause in the negotiations looks likely or else failure looks highly probable.

The full paper can be downloaded here. PLEASE NOTE: The paper has been revised since this article  was first published.

Leaving the EU – a Futurus briefing by Anthony Scholefield

Implementing the voters’ decision for Brexit is a huge task.  This paper analyses the way forward and recommends the most advantageous political and economic means of controlling the process.

The paper looks at the reasons why people voted to leave and summarises the debate since June 23rd. It considers how the concerns of business can be squared with a desire of many voters to restrict immigration from the EU.

The critical path out of the EU

This latest briefing from Futurus analyses the critical path to leave the EU. It concentrates on two areas. These are, winning a referendum and organising an effective and beneficial departure.

These require a clear aim and a clear plan, taking account of existing legal agreements and political realities.

(We normally display these articles in full on the CIB website, but due to the length of this piece, it needs to be accessed as an attachment)

 

 

The UK’s financial vulnerabilities as an EU member state

UK MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU.
TRADING ARRANGEMENTS ARE NOT SO IMPORTANT AS THE UK’S FINANCIAL WEAKNESS INCURRED BY EU MEMBERSHIP


We are often asked for the full presentation of all the financial aspects of the UK’s relationship with the EU and the EU referendum.

While trading arrangements are important,they have not been as decisive as balance sheet destabilisations throughout history.

This latest analysis by Futurus considers the diminution in UK assets because of its budgetary contributions and the UK’s increased liabilities and contingent liabilities due to EU membership.

Its conclusion points out that “While EEA states have no risk exposure to EU liabilities, the UK has enormous exposure. Moreover, it is, in part, one-sided with no corresponding EU risk exposure to the Bank of England. It is likely that further collapse in the finances of eurozone governments and banks will not attract open-ended EU entity support as in the period 2009-13 and resort will be made to bail-ins and haircuts on bondholders. However, prudent finance would be for the UK to leave the political and monetary structure of the EU and move to EEA status urgently.

To read the full report, click here