More positive polling, but here’s what we’re up against

Telephone polls carry more weight than on-line polls. That is certainly the message from the markets. The pound has fallen as an ICM poll for the Guardian has given “Leave” 52% of the vote. A week ago, the dollar stood at over $1.46 to the pound. Now it has fallen to barely $1.44 and the main factor is a realisation that Brexit is looking more likely. Importantly, however, this is still higher the than the exchange rate at the time the referendum was announced, suggesting the markets do not view Brexit as the calamity George Osborne has predicted.

Also casting doubt on the gloomy economic “consensus” is Ashoka Mody, a former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s European and Research Departments. This is significant given that the current head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, has been very much part of the doom and gloom  brigade.

Mr Mody, writing in the Independent,  questions whether the UK’s trade with te EU will fall. The essence of what he says is that, whatever scenario international traders are confronted with, they will eventually adjust and all productive trading relationships will remain intact. He does not look at the various alternative Brexit scenarios but pours scorn on the idea that permanent damage will be done to the economy. “The vast bulk of those large estimates come from the further assumption that reduced trade will shrink British productivity growth. This is disingenuous. There is simply no evidence that less trade lowers productivity growth”, he says.

He does not predict an economic bonanza, but does this matter? The prophecies of doom and gloom have lowered the bar. We only need to show that the sky won’t fall in and we can move the debate on to other areas. Following on from Allister Heath’s piece, the “remain” camp’s claim that they have irrevocably won the economic argument does not stand up.

They do, however, have other weapons up their sleeve. The ilustration above comes from a step-by-step ‘How To Vote By Post’ guide was sent by Bristol City Council to residents registered for postal voting last week, along with the actual ballots. Note  how the pencil is positioned above “remain”!

Also very worrying is this article about the strange order in which items appear in Google if you search under “EU referendum”. You would naturally expect Richard North’s blog of that name to come top, given the scale of  its readership. Well, it barely makes the top 10, even though it comes top in other searches like Yahoo! and Bing. Very odd.

Like Bristol City Council, Google has denied any wrongdoing, but it is very clear that our opponents are not playing fair. We always knew this wold be the case, but thankfully, it doesn’t mean that we can’t win, especially given the recent polling, but it does show just what we are up against.

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John Petley

John Petley

John Petley is Operations Manager for Campaign for an Independent Britain

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3 comments

  1. John Petley
    John PetleyReply

    As a post script to this piece, I have just recevied an e-mail from SImon Richards of The Freedom Association stating that a poll for The Sun which appeard this morning showed that that people are now four times as likely to trust a complete stranger on the EU referendum than a politician.

  2. MariaReply

    I am a South African/British citizen who live here in Great Britain and have done since 2004 and I can see how quickly Britain is changing and in my opinion I don’t think it is for the better but rather the opposite. People either failed to mention or just don’t seem to realise that when there are too many people in a country as small as Britain with so many people unable to work because being here illegally, on a refugee or a asylum status and not receiving much or any government help crime will increase to meet one’s daily and human requirements and it will be the most vulnerable, unaware and innocent people targeted causing safety fears. Already being part of the EU and Britain being safer this way as the Remain campaign claimed is a pure fantasy and not a fact as far as I am concerned as Britain is a member of NATO which is much more important without having to be in the EU. Britain is a member of NATO precisely because it helps and protect us against terrorism and combat worldwide crime as far as I understand. We cannot look after everyone and control is required to stop things getting any worse if no action is taken against immigration and I am sorry to say that it will affect most people in this country if we do decide to remain as many are waiting to come to lenient Britain and have no intention to settle in other EU countries and learn their language as they can probably speak English even though it may only be the Human Rights words they know. It does not appear that there is a proper and reliable system in place to verify a refugee from a asylum seeker and many immigrants whom make their journey over into the EU had it planned along with many lying about their identity and exactly what their intentions are in regards to their planned destination. Britain wants to trade with every country and should be able to do so without being able to dictate to and simultaneously loosing its own sovereignty/identity throughout the process. We have enough people in Britain to run as an independent, sovereign and multi-national country and could actually be a very good sample to the rest of the world and countries that also want to become independent again. Realistically not all things are possible but being independant Great Britain again is certainly more like than unlikely despite all the tosh and scaremongering fed by the Remain campaign. Britain is a great country but could be greater when we take back control and have the British and all others living in this country make it work and have the passion and determination to do so. David Cameron and many of the Remain campaigners must stop treating people in Britain like idiots. European countries that want to impose hefty trade tariffs on Britain if we do exit EU will cut their noses to spite their faces as realistically a business without a customer is a no brainer and that also means that not only will they possibly have to shut many businesses within the UK but and possibly also within their own country in the EU and unemploy many staff if they wish to be so nasty. If the the other EU countries are sensible enough they will continue to trade with us as they have done for many years and let us get on with business and gives us our freedom back. It appears to be what most working class and ordinary citizens in Britain want, being independent Great Britain again and the wish to prosper more freely.

  3. GReply

    Hey-Ho leavers: Just imagine 2, 3, 5, 10 years after a successful Brexit where economic armageddon as forecast did not take place. Blown completley and totally will be the credibility of ALL the doom-mongers! Anybody that has been in business will know, and understand the dangers, that one NEVER allows one customer to dominate sales. I see similarly, in rallying around Cameron, their reputation (whatever that is) will be demolished.

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