New research paper by Futurus – The negotiations will fail

The title of this latest publication from Futurus may appear provocative but the prospect of concluding a jointly agreed leaving process and a future relationship so it can come into effect, possibly with a transition period, by March 2019 seems very remote.

There have been faults on both sides and the UK government’s failure to set out what exactly it wants the outcome to be has been a particular problem.

The UK government need not have agreed to the EU’s proposed sequence of events – the settlement of the Irish border issue and the exit fee – before discussing trading arrangements. Under Article 50, it need not have done so.

A mutually-agreed pause in the negotiations looks likely or else failure looks highly probable.

The full paper can be downloaded here. PLEASE NOTE: The paper has been revised since this article  was first published.

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Anthony Scholefield

Anthony Scholefield

Anthony Scholefield is Director of the Futurus Think Tank

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  1. Adam HileyReply

    considering the Tories have been dithering for over a Year it is unacceptable for them not to just tell the EU to do one time for us British to get off our backsides and kick the 3 main party regime into touch

  2. Phil JonesReply

    It’s becoming clearer and clearer that the EU is playing stall, stall, stall, in the hopes that Brits will be more and more scared of ‘the cliff edge’. Mrs. May just has to get the guts to say ‘good-bye’ and walk away from Barnier & Co. Barnier was supposed to have been given carte blanche negotiating power by the EU27 provinces, so why does he now have to go back and get agreement from them after every small step of the ‘negotiation’? It’s all part of the stall, stall, stall. I used to think that David Davis was a key to accomplishing Brexit but am now wondering if Jacob Rees-Mogg would not be a better Brexit negotiator. I’ve been quite impressed by interviews that JRM has given.

  3. Ken WorthyReply

    I’m surprised to see on your site a recommendation that we should stay in the single market or EFTA for a transition period. This would leave us half out of the EU and still subject to its business laws, its court and its free movement of people. Effectively it would have taken us four or five years after the Leave vote to actually leave. For the last few months such a “transition period” has been advocated enthusiastically by the continuity Remain campaign, with the support of the PR budgets of Big Business and the City.
    This is not what we voted for.

    • John Petley
      John PetleyReply

      You will also find on the site a plug for a non-EEA exit route, produced by the Bruges Group. CIB is an umbrella organisation and does not have an official line on these matters. The bottom line is that it’s not what CIB’s authors think but what the Government is doing – or trying to do. March 29th 2019 is getting nearer by the day and we so far know very little about the exit route proposed. It may be a case that adopting an off-the shelf interim arrangement such as the EEA is the only way to prevent total chaos when Brexit day arrives. This may, of course, be an unduly pessimistic assessment, but if the economy tanks in the immediate aftermath of Brexit due to the government not having any trade agreement in place with the EEU, it will spark a massive campaign for us to re-join the EU – a tragedy which must be avoided at all costs.

  4. Gordon WebsterReply

    Wee can argue until the Cows come home about who said what, but the simple fact is that we are still in the EU, a year after our vote, because our Political employees do not want to leave. The repeal of the European Acts is all that our Government was required to do by British Law. I went on Negotiations Courses, and we were taught how the Union Barons of old conducted their negotiations – from a position of strength. Lay out your position, get your ballot out of the way, and when your position is dismissed out of hand – Pull Out. They have spent 44 years asset stripping our country, to the point that an estimated £80 billion trade surplus, and millions of European jobs depends on trade with Britain.
    My fear is that, as Socrates explained in “The Allegory Of The Cave,” too many of the elite in this country are comfortable in the dark, believing in shadows. They are scared of freedom, and scared of going into the light. So any excuse, and any scare story will do so long as they are not forced to think for themselves.

  5. robin LambertReply

    Leave ….there is No cliff Edge Only for Euro Currency aka New Deutschmark…Portugal,Italy,Greece on the brink.
    Open borders have ‘Gifted’Europe Terrorism.
    We should show EU any more Funds to brainwash,& UK will get Trade deals with 105 Countries who want to trade,but have No Special privileges.
    Also why is No one flagging up Temporary Visas?…No half in half out,means ECJ will continue to stimy Democracy.
    Abolish the Lords as well

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