The Leave Alliance, of which the Campaign for an Independent Britain is a member, has produced two further monographs on the subject of Brexit.
They can be downloaded here:-
Alternatively, a full list of monographs can be found on this page of the Leave Alliance website.
Précis of all these monographs can also be found on the CIB website
All are well worth reading, setting out some of the issues we will need to face when negotiating our exit from the EU. The Authorised Economic Operators monograph addresses a little-known subject of crucial importance to our international trade.
To ensure a successful and permanent separation from the EU, three tasks need to be accomplished. Firstly, Article 50 needs to be invoked, beginning the two-year process (which can be extended subject to mutual agreement) which will actually take us out of the EU. Secondly, the government needs to have studied the alternatives and come up with a well-researched Brexit strategy that will ensure that we arrive at the exit door with the best possible future ahead of us, our trade with both the EU and the rest of the world in good shape. Thirdly, remain voters, especially the young, need to be de-programmed and years of indoctrination undone so that the scales of europhilia will fall from their eyes. At the same time our democratic processes need to be renewed to ensure that no politician will ever be able to repeat Edward Heath’s litany of deceit to drag us back in.
The Campaign for an Independent Britain will do what we can to put pressure on HMG to ensure the first of these tasks takes place as soon as practically possible. As far as the second is concerned, we have sought to provide a forum for an exchange of views on the subject. Tackling the third will be a major long-term challenge and one which, no doubt in common with other pro-independence campaign groups, we are only starting to get to grips with. The Harrogate Agenda has gone some way to devising a blueprint for democratic renewal, but more needs to be done, especially in our schools and universities, to provide a counter-weight to years of pro-EU propaganda which young people have been fed and – in many cases – uncritically imbibed.
Another part of the de-indoctrination process is to provide resources. There is a need to disseminate news of post-Brexit developments, including informed comment. The shock of Brexit has left something of a vacuum and there has been no shortage of on-line doom mongers claiming that Brexit will never happen, while disgruntled remainers continue to call for a second referendum and to latch onto any piece of bad economic news.
We are therefore producing pieces like this article both to reassure worried leave voters and to provide them with information to use in their dealings with any remainers among their acquaintences. Once we separate the wood form the trees, the picture is actually pretty encouraging. Early economic indicators suggest that the “do-it-yourself recession” over which George Osborne fretted has not happened and is not going to. Meanwhile Theresa May has proved much firmer on the issue of Brexit than many leave voters had expected. She intends to trigger Article 50 at some point next year and has ruled out a second referendum or an early general election. Her comments at yesterday’s cabinet meeting at Chequers have been quite unequivocal:-
“We must continue to be very clear that ‘Brexit means Brexit’, that we’re going to make a success of it. That means there’s no second referendum; no attempts to sort of stay in the EU by the back door; that we’re actually going to deliver on this.”
She also added that “quite a lot of work” had already been done over the summer to prepare the way for the Article 50 exit negotiations, although no more details were provided. She has stated that there will be a “red line” on free movement from the EU and thus that we would pursue an unique relationship with the EU rather than adopting an off the shelf solution such as the Norwegian or Swiss models.
Mrs May has also confirmed that there will be no parliamentary vote before Article 50 is triggered. This will spike Owen Smith’s guns, but is perfectly fair. After all, the referendum bill saw Parliament hand over to the electorate the final decision about whether or not to stay in the EU. Even if both Houses of Parliament have strong europhile majorities, it would still be nothing less than immoral to ride roughshod over June 23rd’s vote.
So it does look like Article 50 will be triggered and that we will therefore begin the withdrawal process at some point next year. This is all very positive. It would be good to know a bit more about the likely exit route and how the key issues of restricting migration and access to the single market will be dealt with. It is no secret that there are disagreements over these issues within Mrs May’s cabinet. However, in view of her tough rhetoric on immigration at last year’s Conservative conference, it is no surprise that she has thrown her weight behind some restriction on freedom of movement – after all, immigration was one of the main factors behind the leave victory and recent statistics have underlined the scale of the task which her government faces if these aspirations are to be met.
Returning to the economy, things look pretty positive. Last week, we mentioned Anatole Kaletsky, who claimed that over time, public opinion would shift back towards EU membership. In the interest of fairness, it’s only right that we report his “Remainer’s Recantation” – in other words, his admission that the post-June 23rd armageddon he predicted hasn’t come to pass:- “Nobody can say at present whether this newfound indifference to Brexit will turn out to be well-founded realism, complacency or wishful thinking, but it is definitely not the attitude that I expected in the panicky hours immediately after the vote.”
The CBI’s latest quarterly survey also shows that business and professional services firms – which include accountancy, legal and marketing firms – reported that business volumes were unchanged on the quarter, after rising in May. Meanwhile, consumer services companies – which include hotels, bars, restaurants, travel, leisure – saw further moderate growth in business volumes. The report highlighted a decline in optimism, but given that the CBI was a staunch supporter of remain, this isn’t really a great surprise. With business performing better than expected, it is likely that this lack of optimism will prove a short-term issue, which will dissipate once a clear timetable for Article 50 and details of the withdrawal strategy are spelt out.
This article from the oil and gas industry’s magazine expresses some concern about the possible effects of Brexit on a very unstable EU, claiming that it could trigger a fall in demand, but the article goes on to say that “things rarely turn out as bad as we feared or as well as we hoped.” Meanwhile, consumer spending has rebounded, with strong high street sales figures reported for July.
All in all, a pretty upbeat picture of our economy. In fact, in view of the data, it is highly questionable whether the Bank of England should have re-started its Quantitative Easing. The economist Tim Congdon called the move “crazy”.
For all that, we did the right thing on June 23rd and if anyone is in any doubt, the recent behaviour of the European Commission should put their minds at rest. Less than two months after the decision by one of the biggest EU member states to leave this project, the Commission President, the arch-federalist Jean-Claude Juncker showed just what a different world he lives in compared with the average UK voter. “Borders are the worst invention ever made by politicians”, he recently said in a recent meeting to discuss the future of the EU following the Brexit vote. Our Prime Minister replied that people of the United Kingdom consider the control over their country’s borders to be important. Indeed, the desire to regain a greater degree of control of our borders was a big factor in the Leave vote.
But we are not alone in our concerns. The migration crisis is causing borders to be reinstated in many frontiers across Europe, even between countries who signed the Schengen accord. Mr Juncker’s desire to see national borders sompletely abolished is increasingly out of step with the wishes of many EU “citizens”.
Meanwhile, his colleagues at the Commission have seriously upset the Irish. Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s Competition Commissioner, ordered Apple to pay €13 billion in tax to the Irish government, claiming that its arrangement with the Irish government is illegal under state aid rules. Not only is Tim Cook, Apple’s Chief Executive, annoyed by this decision, calling it “maddening” and “political”, but reaction in Ireland has been very hostile. The Irish cabinet is contemplating an appeal against the decision, while Michael O’Leary of Ryanair, one of Ireland’s most well-known businessman, used somewhat stronger language to register his disapproval.
While such resentment is unlikely to build up a sifficient head of steam to lead to calls for Irexit, there is no doubt that the European Commission could prove one of the withdrawal movement’s key allies in our longer term campaign to ensure we never re-join the EU. Its behaviour makes our end-game a lot more achievable – namely when we reach the same point as Switzerland where, to quote Thomas Minder, a counsellor for Schaffhausen state, only ‘a few lunatics’ want to join the EU,
Away from the debate between politicians, businessmen and campaigners about the best exit route, eight weeks after the memorable result of June’s referendum, life for ordinary people has settled down remarkably quickly.
In fact, it soon became apparent within a matter of days after June 23rd that life was carrying on as normal for much of the country. I recall a trip to London during the final week of June. Walking down the south bank of the Thames, it struck me how little effect the referendum result was having on day to day life. A long queue of people of all nationalities were waiting to buy tickets to the London Eye and the restaurants were full – in fact, my train home was even fuller! In short, you wouldn’t have thought we had just taken a major political decision only a few days ago.
Initial statistics suggest that life did indeed carry on much as normal during the first full month after the Brexit vote. The number of people claiming unemployment related benefits fell by 8,600 in July. It had been expected to rise by around 9,000. The fall was the first since February this year. Other data showed that the employment rate in the UK reached a record high of 74.5% between April and June this year. Retail sales also grew by 1.4% during the month. The vote to leave the EU has not deterred people from spending money. Furthermore, for all the uncertainly generated by David Cameron’s decision to call the referendum, London attracted more venture capital for start-ups than other major European cities. According to an article in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, it attracted €1.5bn in the first half of the year, well ahead of its nearest rivals Stockholm (€1bn), Paris (€674m), and Berlin (€520m).
Significantly. although the rate of UK consumer price inflation jumped to 0.6% in the year to July followin the Brexit vote, it was only slightly up on the 0.5% recorded in March and still well below the 1% threshold which triggers a letter from the governor of the Bank of England to the Chancellor explaining why inflation is so far below the 2% target!
BBC Radio 4 broadcast an interesting programme on Wednesday Evening where two groups of people from the most pro-leave and the most pro-remain areas of the UK met in separate rooms to discuss their feelings following the Brexit vote. Two Rooms, hosted by Fi Glover, was another fascinating insight into how quickly life has settled down. The leavers, from Boston, Lincolnshire, were the more optimistic of the two groups, expressing great hopes especially for the UK’s trade prospects. The remainers, from Brixton in South London, talked of their shock when the result was announced. They were concerned about possible loss of access to the single market and expected an economic downturn.
Both groups, however, accepted the result. Indeed, one person used the phrase “now we’ve left”, even though we haven’t even invoked Article 50 let alone come out the other end! Interestingly, both groups saw Brexit as a long overdue opportunity to re-boot our democracy and to decentralise power to a local level. For all the initial horror of some Brixtonian remainers, there were no calls for a second referendum. They may not have wanted a leave vote, but Brexit as far as they were concrned means Brexit.
Such attitudes at the grassroots level should not come as a shock. For four month’s David Cameron’s decison to call the referendum thrust the issue of EU membership into a prominence it had never previously enjoyed. A year ago, just before the General election, a survey by YouGov placed “Europe” as far down as 7th in its list of voters’ priority issues, well behind housing, welfare and health. Anyone who has ever stood as a UKIP candidate will have known the frustration that in general elections, the EU was never widely viewed as the most important factor in determining how people would vote. After its moment in the spotlight, it is therefore unsurpisingly again receding into the background.
But not totally. News that over a million Eastern European migrants are now working in the UK will have served as a reminder to some people why they voted to leave, while the Daily Express has unearthed another story which will raise plenty of hackles:- a German-based agency called medaltracker.eu whose data is used by offical EU websites, has published a chart showing that the greatest number of medals in the Rio Olympics has been won by the EU! Nowhere is the UK to be seen, which is particularly galling considering the tremendous performances by Team GB. It seems that the Brexit vote has done nothing to change the mindset of the EU élite who opened a museum four years ago costing £44 million and called the “House of European History” which calls the Second World War a “civil war“, in spite of quite a bit of the action taking place in North Africa and the Far East
While it seems impossible to change this very selective and bizarre interpretation of history, hopefully, if our government and Civil Service can get their act together, by the time the 2020 Olympics begin in Tokyo, “now we’ve left” really will mean “now we’ve left” and the likes of Medaltracker will not be able to repeat their insult to our heroic athletes.
At first glance, headlines in a number of papers proclaiming “No Brexit until late 2019” sound thoroughly depressing. Has some new hold-up to triggering Article 50 suddenly appeared on the horizon? Not at all. In spite of a spat between Boris Johnson and Liam Fox over whether the Department for International Trade or the Foreign & Commonwealth Office will head up UK foreign policy, Theresa May has insisted that it is full steam ahead in the preparation for invoking Article 50 early next year and has told the two men to “stop playing games.”
If her plans go according to schedule, the two-year negotiation period would take us to early 2019. Factor in even a short delay in preparing the ground or a mutually-agreed extension to the negotiations and we will find ourselves in the second half of 2019 without having gone through the Brexit door. With France and Germany both holding major elections in 2017, it is quite likely that there will need need to be an extension even before the complexities of negotiating a succesful divorce are taken into account. A change of incumbent or government could result in previously-agreed changes having to be revisited if the leadership in either of those countries change – a distinct possibility in France, where President Hollande’s popularity ratings are very low.
Is business going to suffer as a result of June 23rd’s vote? Well before the referendum, we predicted a short-term blip in the event of a Brexit vote, particularly a drop in the value of sterling. We pointed out that the economic gains were fore the longer term. House prices have fallen in the wake of Brexit, dropping by 2.6% in London and 2% in the South East. Is this a calamity? Ask any first-time buyer about the absurd prices they are having to pay to get onto the housing ladder and you will not hear any sadness on their part. Another report claimed that businesses had become “pessimistic” as a result of the Brexit vote. Read the article in full, however, and it states that 36% of companies are planning to increase staffing levels now compared with 40% before the referendum. A slight fall in optimism, but hardly evidence of widespread business gloom.
It is frustrating that some remainers still seem unable to accept that we voted to leave – and with good reason. Avinash Persaud, writing in the Economic and Political Weekly highlights the supposed correlation between voting to leave and lower educational qualification. Those of us with degrees who voted to leave are becoming utterly sick of being characterised as ignoramuses. If anything, the number of graduates who voted for remain is an indication of the woeful inadequacy of our educational system as opposed to any correlation between intelligence and support for the EU.
Mr Persaud, like many other commentators, also links support for Brexit to disenchantment with free trade and the reforms that began under Margaret Thatcher. This again is simplistic twaddle. During the course of the Brexit campaign, one of the most frequently repeated advantages of Brexit was the prospect of beginning to take control of our own trade and escaping the protectionism of the EU. I for one was accused in one debate by my pro-EU opponent of advocating “Singapore on steroids”.
While the Brexit vote was strong in white working classes areas, the wonderful result on June 23rd was achieved by their alliance with frustrated small businessmen, some trade unionists, a few Labour MPs, a few more Tory MPs and a selection of educated professional types unhappy with the loss of our sovereignty, control of our trade and the top-down nature of the EU.
Of these unlikely bedfellows, the most uniquely British component is the strongly Eurosceptic centre right – one of the legacies of Thatcherism. Peter Mandelson’s claim that Jeremy Corbyn somehow sabotaged the remain vote just does not stand up to scrutiny. Undecided centre-right voters were never going to be won over by a Labour politician, whether Blairite of Corbynite. Somehow, Mandelson and his ilk still seem unable to come to terms with the fact that plenty of highly educated intelligent people studied the arguments on both sides of the debate and decided that we would be better off out.
Nor, sadly, are they giving up in their attempts to overrule the will of the people. The European Movement, which was a recipient of substantial CIA funding in the past, is organising a “March for Europe” on 3rd September. “We need to send a message that 16 million people voted to remain” says their propaganda. Well, we have a message for the European Movement:- over 17 million people voted to leave and we won. That’s called democracy.
Lord Stoddart, a patron and former Chairman of CIB, recently issued a stark warning to Lord Mandelson and other Europhile members of the Upper Chamber:-
“My colleagues in the Lords would do well to remember that the Brexit vote was the largest vote for anything in the history of our nation. According to a study by the University of East Anglia, had Vote Leave been a political party, it would have won a huge landslide of 421 Parliamentary seats. That would equate to 65% of all seats and 73% of seats in England and Wales. Mess with this massive mandate at your peril!”
Prime Minister Theresa May has made it clear that she will not be rushing to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and begin the process of taking the UK out of the EU. “I do not under-estimate the challenge of negotiating our exit from the European Union and I firmly believe that being able to talk frankly and openly about the issues we face will be an important part of a successful negotiation”, she said last week.
However, one small step has been made. She has decided that the UK will give up its rotating presidency of the European Union, which was due to begin in July 2017. Mrs May told Donald Tusk, the European Council President, Tusk that it was “the right thing to do given we will be very busy with negotiations to leave the EU”. So it looks like Article 50 will be implement early next year.
The uncertainties about both the timing of Article 50 and the details of the exit strategy have been the main reasons for the widely-reported claims of an economic slowdown. However, according to a piece in the Daily Mail, the Bank of England said that it has not found “clear evidence” that a sharp slowdown was underway in Britain’s economy after the June 23rd vote to leave the European Union, though around a third of firms it spoke to plan to curb hiring and investment.
The Bank claimed that business uncertainty “had risen markedly” but there was little evidence that consumers were spending less either. “A majority of firms spoken with did not expect a near-term impact from the result on their investment or staff hiring plans. But around a third of contacts thought there would be some negative impact on those plans over the next 12 months,” However, the Bank was adamant: “As yet, there was no clear evidence of a sharp general slowing in activity.”
Nonetheless, the Interational Monetary Fund has downgraded its projections for global growth, citing Brexit as one of the reasons. For this year, glolbal GDP would grow by 3.1% instead of 3.2% and 2017’s figures were downgraded from 3.5% to 3.4%.
This is based on an assumption that trade talks go well. A piece published by Bloomberg suggests that the IMF would expect to see global growth drop as low as 2.8% in the event of a messy divorce looming. It is hard to believe that our country’s economy is of such importance that an impasse on trade talks really would knock 0.6% off the entire world’s GDP growth. It is worth remembering that the IMF has not always been terribly accurate in its forecasts in the past. In 2013, the institution did own up to being totally wrong over the scale of Greece’s financial woes and some commentators have asked the question as to whether the IMF ever gets anything right.
However, one prediction worthy of comment is that the IMF still reckons we will not only escape recession but record a faster rate of growth this year than the Eurozone. Certainly, the UK’s economic fundamentals appeared to be pretty sound in the immediate run-up to the referendum and although the pound has fallen in value since June 23rd, the Bank of England’s failure to find any evidence of a serious economic downturn is unsurprising. No stimulatory measures were taken at last month’s Monetary Policy Committee and it is possible that nothing much will happen next month either.
There are plenty of stories doing the rounds about optimism falling in some UK businesses, but if Brexit is managed successfully – and the delay in invoking Article 50 suggests that a detailed strategy will be developed before this takes place – we believe that Brexit will be economically neutral in the short to medium term and a benefit rather than a disaster for the UK economy in the longer term.
Wth the referendum now behind us and the summer recess just beginning, news is likely to be rather thin on the ground until the beginning of September. We do, however, intend to send out our usual weekly e-mail throughout this period as there will always be a few things to report.
Before signing off for this week, one further article by our friend Joris Luyendijk deserves a mention. This Dutch author and chat-show host is such an enthusiastic supporter of the EU’s federalist agenda that he makes Jean-Claude Juncker seem like a eurosceptic. The Guardian occasionally gives him a slot and his latest offering is even more full of bile against our country than usual. The man opposes giving us a reasonable deal and says that the EU must inflict “Project Pain” on us to ensure we face economic disaster. He fears that if it doesn’t, other countries may follow us out of the door.
Two points in response. Firstly, he mentions all the distortions told by the leave campaign which he fears could be used as a template in other countries. While we in CIB were uncomfortable about the way the issue of our contribution to the EU was handled, for example, this is nothing compared to the nonsense put out by remainers. At a debate in which I participated, one of my opponents said that we would not be allowed to re-join EFTA. This is pure hogwash. On a different occasion, a former cabinet minister insisted to my surprise that David Cameron would trigger Article 50 on June 24th if Leave won. Instead, he resigned as Prime Minister.
Secondly, while Mr Luyendijk’s determination that no other country will leave the EU is shared by most, if not all, of the leaders of the 27 remaining member states, some of them at least are much more pragmatic, including Germany’s Angela Merkel. Trade has to continue and punishing us for voting to leave is in no one’s interests. Furthermore, Luyendijk’s extremism calls into question the whole purpose of Article 50. If the other countries feel it will be made into essentially a dead letter and that they will be irrevocably locked into something that they may decide at a later date they want to escape from, the EU may well end up facing a violent implosion a some point in the future.
Luyendijk is all aggression and spite when it somces to our country, but this is to hide the weakness of his position. In another piece for the Guardian, he admits that in his own country, support for the EU is plummeting. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard made the point over two years ago that “superstate rmonatics are on the back foot almost everythere.” Of course, if the EU project isn’t about federalism, what is it about? If it is holding together simply through inertia, with the federalist idealism confined to a few people like Luyendijk, it is in grave danger indeed. The arch-federalist former MEP Andrew Duff has lamented that the EU may be destined to remain an association of states committed to “never closer union.” If he is correct, Brexit may well turn out to be a blessing. Our example may enable it to dismantle itself peaceably country by country rather than leaving an ugly mess behind like the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia on its demise.