May admits coastal communities will be lost in transition

A press release from Fishing for leave

At PMQs yesterday (Wed 11th Oct.) Theresa May finally let the mask slip when asked a question on whether Britain would still be locked into the disastrous Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) during a transition.

Before the House of Commons the PM stated that Britain’s fishing industry and coastal communities will once again be bargained as part of the agreement to gain a transition/implementation period.

“As part of the agreement we need to enter into for the implementation period, obviously that (CFP )and other issues will be part of that agreement”.

Fishing for Leaves Alan Hastings raged “It is appalling that the establishment won’t even make a stand on fishing when it is such an “acid test” of whether we’ve taken back control – after being sacrificed to join it looks like Britain’s fishing and coastal communities will be sacrificed on leaving too”.

“It’s sickening that it is not for any benefit but to cravenly gain a transition period that will only leave this country prostrate at the hands of the EU”

Fishing for Leave highlighted that under international law Article 50 confers a clean slate on March 2019 where all EU treaties and law ceases to apply – taking Britain cleanly out the CFP and leaving the country free to make our own laws and deals.

“A transition has been spun as part of a gentle unwinding during leaving – IT IS ABSOLUTELY NOT”

“Legally Britain leaves the EU at the end of the Article 50 process in March 2019. A transition period isn’t part of leaving but part of a future deal with the EU”

“Therefore, a transition is only within the EUs gift to give and on their terms – this puts Britain at the EUs mercy – we will have taken back control in March 2019 only to give it straight back to the EU in a transition deal – its madness”.

This was confirmed by Michael Barnier on the 21st September. That any transition past the Article 50 cut-off date can only happen if the UK effectively re-joins the EU to get it.

”I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the Acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply

Alan Hastings fumed “Barnier has made it crystal clear – the only way the EU will give a transition is if it is entirely on their terms. Where Britain continues to obey all current and future EU law but has no say or input over them – it’s a worse position than being members – perhaps that’s the point!”

“Consequently, they can demand continuation of the CFP – most worryingly they can alter the rules to cripple and finish what is left of the British fleet so they clear the sea of the British industry”

“What Mrs May and her remain sycophants are doing just now in their desperation to Remain with the EU is prostrating Britain in regulatory purgatory as they hope to keep kicking the can down the road – lost in transition comes to mind”

“They are putting not only the fishing industry but the nation in a grave position at the EUs mercy”.

“Unless the political establishment wants to self-destruct when the public realises what they have done they must take back full control in March 2019”.

The campaign for an Independent Britain would like to point out that, while fully sharing Fishing for Leave’s concerns about Mrs May’s statement, it does not believe that this damaging transitional arrangement is anything more than a figment of her imagination, as we pointed out here.
We would also wish to thank Heather Wheeler MP for her comments on this press release. She said “This is a complete nonsense and wrong. We are giving notice on fishing and we are taking back our fishing limits and quotas.” CIB is seeking further information and clarification from ministers and any replies will be posted in due course.  Mrs Wheeler was a staunch supporter of Leave during the referendum.

 

 

No deal is looking increasingly likely

There was something of a storm in a teacup in the House of Commons on Monday. The Conservative backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg asked the Prime Minister for an assurance that the European Court of Justice’s writ will not run in the UK after March 29th 2019. Mrs May didn’t oblige. She replied that “That may mean that we will start off with the ECJ governing the rules that we are part of.” This admission that we will “fall under ECJ rules” was all over the papers, but this media frenzy was based on the assumption that the transition period proposed by Mrs May, among others, is a realistic option. In reality, it isn’t.

What seems to be the core of the transition proposals is that we continue for a couple of years as a shadow member state. Having repatriated the acquis into domestic legislation, we would voluntarily apply the rules of the single market and customs union while in exchange, the EU would treat us like a member state for trade purposes and neither impose any tariffs nor apply the usual rules of inspection for a “third country” at the main ports of entry for UK exports, such as Calais due to our regulatory convergence with the EU.

The flaw in the proposal is that it makes the assumption that the EU will bend its own rules for the sake of an ex-member whose vote to leave dealt it a huge political blow. There is every indication that Mrs May’s transitional plan, which so upset Jacob Rees-Mogg, is a non-starter. EU bigwigs have been very courteous but the message has been quite unequivocal – No way to this transitional arrangement, no matter how many times the Prime Minister calls on the EU to show “leadership” and “flexibility.”

So what are we left with? In her speech yesterday, Mrs May raised the possibility of there not being a deal in place – transitional or otherwise – by March 2019. “While I believe it is profoundly in all our interests for the negotiations to succeed, it is also our responsibility as a Government to prepare for every eventuality, so that is exactly what we are doing. These white papers also support that work, including setting out steps to minimise disruption for businesses and travellers”, she said. (The white papers to which she refers cover trade and customs.)

Naturally, the Prime Minister stated that this was not what she wanted, going on to say “We are negotiating a deal. We will not have negotiated that deal until, I suspect, close to the end of that period that’s been set aside for it.” In other words, we will keep on talking and hope for some sort of deal eventually, even if the talks go to the wire.

This is not helpful for businesses, who will not have any guidelines to help them prepare for Brexit and will not even know whether a deal is going to happen until the last minute.  If they were to take the advice of some commentators, it would be to prepare for no deal being struck. For all Mrs May’s calls for flexibility, that word isn’t to be found in the EU’s vocabulary, as David Davis and his team are beginning to discover. We agreed to the EU’s negotiating timetable – in other words, that an agreement (or at least, reasonable progress towards an agreement) – on  the Irish border question, the divorce bill and the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK must come before any talk about trade. We needn’t have done this, but we have and so who can blame the EU for sticking to its guns when there has been very little progress in these three areas?

The repeated rejection of ongoing membership of the European Economic Area, for instance, by re-joining EFTA, has closed off another option and one which has two advantages over the bespoke transitional arrangement which Mrs May is suggesting. Firstly, it is rooted in reality. We would be signing up to an agreement which the EU has already signed. Secondly, there would be no need to accept the supervision of the ECJ or to be part of the EU’s customs union. We would thus be free to strike our own trade deals.

There is also one other intriguing possibility, first raised by George Yarrow of the Regulatory Policy Institute. In his paper,  Brexit and the Single Market, he claims that on Brexit, the UK would remain a member of the EEA by default  He points out that joining the EU does not automatically mean joining the EEA; a separate accession process is required. Likewise, when Austria, Sweden and Finland left EFTA to join the EU in 1995 (by which time the EEA agreement between the EU and EFTA was in place), they did not have to re-apply to join the EEA. They were already members through having been in EFTA. The default position for the UK on departure, therefore, is that it too would remain an EEA member.

Yarrow’s thesis has attracted little attention from either our negotiators or the EU’s team. It raises a number of questions but it might possibly offer some answers. While the EU has no interest in exploring it, it would make life a lot easier for David Davis. We would not be under the power of the ECJ but of the EFTA court (which is limited to “EEA-relevant” matters) and could follow Liechtenstein and apply the same restriction on free movement of people, using Articles 112 and 113 of the EEA agreement. At a stroke, we would be in a better transitional position than under Mrs May’s proposals – to which the EU is not going to agree anyway.

On the other hand, if Yarrow is wrong and leaving the EU means leaving the EEA, it does mean that time is very short – probably already too short – for any satisfactory arrangement  to be in place by March 2019. German manufacturers are being told to prepare for a “very hard Brexit” while the Irish equivalent of HMRC has already reached the conclusion that customs posts will need to be erected between the Republic and Northern Ireland, even though no one on either side wants to see the return of any sort of visible border.

Yarrow’s thesis or an immediate application to re-join EFTA  are thus the only two escape routes from the looming cliff edge which no one wants either. The first option is untried and may not stand up legally while the second has been repeatedly rejected in favour of a chimera – namely Mrs May’s illusory “transitional arrangement”. We are not yet in Private Fraser territory where “we’re all doomed”, but Mrs May and her party could well be unless they engage in some lateral thinking – and quickly.

 

Groundhog Day

If you think you have read a post like this before, you’re probably right. Another week of Brexit negotiations are about to begin which will almost certainly end with very little progress being made. A smiling David Davis will emerge in a few days’ time and give a very upbeat assessment of the talks at a press conference while Michel Barnier, in guarded but polite language, will say that actually very little has happened which will enable the UK and the EU to get down to discussing any sort of future trade relationship.

It’s rather like the film Groundhog Day where an American weatherman finds himself trapped in a time loop, repeating the same day over and over again, except there’s an important difference: in the film, time basically stands still whereas the Brexit clock is ticking away.

To be more precise, Brexit day, 29th March 2019, will take place 1,010 days after our vote to leave on 23rd June last year. In exactly one month’s time, November 9th 2017, four days after Bonfire Night, we will reach the halfway point and so far, there is no sign of any deal which will enable trade to flow seamlessly between the UK and the EU once we leave the EU.

Even the plans for a two-year transition will be going nowhere. Essentially, while Mrs May may be telling the EU that the ball is in their court, the EU is being asked to make an exception to its normal rules for the sake of a former member state which doesn’t want to be part of the club any more. It is under no obligation to say yes – indeed, it has given every indication that it is not going to. Mrs May’s speech in Florence did nothing to shift the predominant belief in Brussels and elsewhere that there was plenty of goodwill in it but little of substance which could unblock the negotiations in the three key areas where agreement must be reached before trade talks can begin – the Irish border question, the divorce bill and the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK.

It may be a case that Mrs May is being advised to take a tough line in the hope that the EU will blink first. If so, she (and her advisors) are likely to be disappointed. Even so, the fallout from Mrs May’s conference speech and the  failed attempts to remove her have left her with no option but to ensure we leave the EU in March 2019. Grant Shapps, the former Tory Chairman who surfaced as the leader of the failed coup, did not raise Brexit as an issue, but Nadine Dorries, a consistent pro-Brexit Tory MP, claimed that the plan was to take Boris Johnson down with Theresa May and install a new pro-remain leader who would stop Brexit.

We will never know the truth of what went on in the aftermath of Mrs May’s speech, but the strong support she has been given from pro-Brexit MPs conveys the implicit message that there can be no turning back,

So are we heading towards a no-deal situation when our delegation will walk away from the talks, blaming EU intransigence? Business leaders will not like this and will be lobbying hard to prevent such an outcome.

This leaves Mrs May caught between a rock and a hard place.  Maybe she (or her advisors) still haven’t grasped the political nature of the EU project. This is hardly her fault. From Edward Heath onwards, the wool has been pulled over the eyes of the UK so effectively that even serving MPs think that the EU is all about trade, which it isn’t. If we are to believe those who know her well, she is typical of many Tories who  have never been that bothered about the EU but was forced by Cameron and Osborne, along with a significant number of her colleagues, to come off the fence. One of our correspondents claims that at the dinner parties he hosted, Cameron and his henchmen described supporting leave as “xenophobic”.

Indeed, if the finger of blame should be pointed at anyone, it is the dynamic duo who headed up the administration before June 23rd last year. Cameron and Osborne held a referendum they didn’t expect to lose, trying to frighten the voters and intimidate their parliamentary colleagues  so that the result would never be in doubt. So confident were they of victory that the Civil Service was banned from drawing up any exit plan.  According to Craig Oliver, Cameron’s spin doctor, Cameron arrived at Downing Street after the result was announced on 24h June saying almost jokingly “Well, that didn’t go according to plan!”

Indeed it didn’t and nor has the first 15 months of Mrs May’s premiership. We can but hope that the next 15 months see some significant progress but as far as the current round of negotiations is concerned, few people will be holding their breath.  She has been bequeathed a very difficult task by her predecessor and it may well take some further crisis before we start to see any real developments which will prevent the “cliff edge” that draws closer by the day and rightly concerns so many.

Photo by vastateparksstaff

Going native

This short video may be of interest to our readers. The speaker is none too impressed with the 26 UK MEPs who voted in the Eurpean Parliament support of a proposal by the EP’s Brexit spokesman Guy Verhofstadt urging the EU not to start trade talks with the UK. The argument by Mary Honeyball, a Labour MEP who supported Mr Verhofstadt, that the UK had agreed to resolving the issues of the Irish border, the Divorce bill and the rights of EU nations living in the UK before starting trade talks cut little ice with many commentators, who accused her and her colleagues of betraying their country. Two Tory MEPs, Richard Ashworth and Julie Girling, were among the 26. The pair propmtly recevied a rap on the knuckles by senior party officials, who were apparently “livid” at their behaviour, especially given the vote took place the day before Mrs May’s conference speech.  The Conservative whip was withdrawn from them as a result of their actions.

The list of the full 26 is as follows:-

LABOUR
* Lucy Anderson, London, Labour
* Paul Brannen, North East England, Labour
* Richard Corbett, Yorkshire and the Humber, Labour
* Set Dance, London, Labour
* Neena Gill, West Midlands, Labour
* Theresa Griffin, North West England, Labour
* Mary Honeyball, London, Labour
* John Howarth, South East England, Labour
* Wajid Khan, North West England, Labour
* Jude Kirton-Darling, North East England, Labour
* David Martin, Scotland, Labour
* Alex Mayer, East of England, Labour
* Linda McAvan, Yorkshire and the Humber, Labour
* Claude Moraes, London, Labour
* Sion Simon, West Midlands, Labour
* Catherine Stihler, Scotland, Labour
* Derek Vaughan, Wales, Labour
* Julie Ward, North West England, Labour
CONSERVATIVES
* Richard Ashworth, South East England, Conservatives
* Julie Girling, South West England, Conservatives
LIBERAL DEMOCRAT
* Catherine Bearder, South East England, Liberal Democrats
GREEN PARTY
* Jean Lambert, London, Green Party
* Molly Scott Cato, South West England, Green Party
* Keith Taylor, South East England, Green Party
SINN FEIN
* Martina Anderson, Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein
PLAID CYMRU
* Jill Evans, Wales, Plaid Cymru

On the subject of Mrs May’s speech,  if the idiotic prankster who interrupted her speech to deliever her a P45 had any sense, rather than waste his time in Manchester, he should have  gone to Strasbourg and handed P45s to all these 26. This vote is the ultimate proof that many MEPs have gone native. The sooner these 26 are put out to grass the better.

(Incidentally, the video also mentions the Damascus Road conversion of Stanley Johnson, the father of Boris, who campaigned for Remain but has belatedly been won over to supporting Brexit courtesy of Jean-Claude Juncker’s recent speech, which made him realise that the EU  was heading “in a direction we don’t really want to go.”)

The human cost of the Single Currency

The chart below is  a powerful rebuttal of the so-called blessings of being part of the EU – and the single currency in particular. Germany is doing very nicely from the €uro, but the human cost of the single currency in other countries is immense. Two in five young people are still out of work in Greece. At one point, the figure was more than three in five.

Although not a “Club Med” member, Finland has youth unemployment of over 20% and non-Eurozone Denmark and Sweden have higher overall and youth unemployment levels than non-EU Norway. The USA, also included for comparison, is doing better still, although Switzerland has even lower unemployment.

The UK comes out pretty well. Keeping control of our own currency has definitely helped us weather the Great Recession better than the major €urozone economies, Germany excepted. Had we never joined the EU, who knows, we may have had a better economy than Switzerland

Photo by Sinn Féin

Fishing for Leave welcomes Michael Gove’s statement on discarding

This press release first appeared on the Fishing for Leave website.

It was good to hear Secretary of State Michael Gove at Conservative Conference and a sincere thanks for his kind words to John Ashworth – the unfaltering founder of the fight to free Britain’s fishing from the EU and CFP.

One of the original Brexiteers in the 90s, without John’s encyclopaedic constitutional knowledge of the EU treaties we may have never known nor understood the EU and its implications– many still do not.

Markets and Morals dictate discarding – where fishermen are forced to discard the “wrong” fish to match quotas – must end.

Quotas cause discards. Discarding distorts information on effort and abundance creating inaccurate science. Poor science leads to poor quotas perpetuating a system that only reflect quota limits and talks to itself in a downward spiral.

Banning discards addresses the symptom (discards) not the cause (quotas). ‘Choke species’ will see vessels have to stop fishing on exhausting their lowest quota to avoid any discarding –bankrupting the majority of the fleet and finishing off communities Brexit or not.

Fishing for Leave looks forward to continuing to work with government on the world leading, bespoke British system of refined effort control (days-at-sea) we propose which solves both choke species by ending the cause – quotas.

Allowing vessels to land all catches in exchange for a limit on time at sea – meaning catch less but land all –will provide real-time science and management.

Government must accelerate engagement so this viable alternative is there to replace the CFP. Otherwise, due to lack of alternative, Britain will remain with the disastrous status quo of the CFP, quotas and discards or a ban that will finish the fleet.

The Icelandic approach is the quota system on steroids. It will accelerate the consolidation of the industry, especially as choke species under a quota system and discard ban will push what little fleet is left out, with only a few big operators able to survive.

Such a result would only benefit a few big operators and ‘slipper skippers’ who rent quota. Anyone advocating replicating what has happened in Iceland has a narrow perception of accelerating an “all for one – none for all” system.

Consolidation to a few, as in Iceland, will make it impossible to rejuvenate the industry and communities so everyone – large or small can survive and thrive.

Coastal constituencies that voted for Brexit and Conservative did not do so for an increased dose of the same bad medicine of Quotas in some sort of continuation of the CFP.

Continuing the same bad system in London instead of Brussels is no solution. Especially when there is a viable alternative that is more sustainable, gives accurate science and would allow a £6.3bn industry and communities to be rebuilt as a beacon of Brexit.

The Secretary of State and this government cannot continue the same system on steroids as in Iceland to appease Remainers (who want to stay aligned with the EU) or to appease a few big interests and slipper skippers.

Many of who were happy to stay in the EU and to see the majority of the British Industry thrown to the Wolves so they can take all.