Can it really be done?

In just over 21 months time, we will hopefully be leaving the EU. With the exception of military matters and the European Arrest Warrant, Mrs May’s objective appears to be for the UK to enjoy a looser relationship with the EU than that of any other European country which is not a member state, apart from countries like Belorus and Russia.

After all, all four EFTA countries (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) are part of the Schengen area while several micro-states including Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican City use the Euro. Turkey is part of the EU’s Customs Union while Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are, of course, part of the European Economic Area.

Can we realistically expect to reach a greater degree of detachment than these countries by March 2019? The Government has not gone into any detail about how it proposes to achieve such a radical divorce in a very short space of time, but the Bruges Group published a booklet earlier this year, entitled  What will it look like? How leaving the single market can be made to work for Britain. Two of the authors, Robert Oulds and Dr Lee Rotherham, are CIB Committee members.

The problem with staying in the European Economic Area by rejoining EFTA is that it would not resolve the customs clearance issue. We do need a customs agreement with the EU, as a lack of a deal in this area is the biggest problem which our trade with the EU would face. (Just to reiterate, a customs agreement is totally different from remaining in the customs union which, as we have pointed out, is irrelevant as far as Brexit is concerned.)

By contrast, standards compliance rarely causes delays. Another red herring is the issue of access to the EU’s financial services market. It can be accessed from outside the EEA, as the authors explain.

The key to a successful trade deal lies in identifying the potential problems early on, which the authors seek to do in this publication.

With the terms “Hard” and “Soft” Brexit bandied about without everyone being agreed on what this means, the authors claim that there is no such thing as a truly “Hard” Brexit. but  there are significant obstacles to be overcome. Nonetheless, a trade agreement between the EU and the UK, focused on tariff reduction and clearing customs, could take just 18 months to complete.

The authors explain why UK’s bargaining position is stronger than many commentators believe. Given that David Davis has already had to concede to his EU counterpart’s demands that talks on a trade deal cannot begin until other exit arrangements have been agreed, any strong cards in his hand will, I am sure, be most appreciated.

 

 

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2 comments

  1. Adam HileyReply

    We need to disentangle from the EU & ECHR completely We can trade and co-operate with Europe and the EU needs to understand without NATO the large percentage of NATO is UK & US run they arrogantly continue to be rude about the sacrifices of thousands of allied troops who saved their ass twice libertarianpartyuk.com republic.org.uk

  2. Phil JonesReply

    Re the first paragraph above, I’ll only view the UK as having again become a country (in the international use of that word) when the UK’s position vis-a-vis the EU is the same as Russia’s position vis-a-vis the EU. To be clearer, I’ll only view the UK as a country again when a person from France or Germany or any of the other 25 EU provinces has no better right to enter in or work in the UK than does a Russian. Russia has a trading arrangement with the EU. Perhaps the UK would hope for an EU trading arrangement with less barriers than Russia’s EU arrangement but it seems to me that the vindictive EU will probably not allow that. It’s the old story. Brits want to have the UK back as a sovereign country but Big Business doesn’t want the necessary actions for creating that to rock the trade boat. Sovereignty & maintenance of culture versus trade & money: the Old Combatants. With Brexit, I’m trusting Mrs. May and David Davis to deliver the UK as a sovereign country free of EU ties to the same extent that Russia, the US, Brazil are free of EU ties — not a quasi EU province such as Norway and Switzerland.

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